Series Preview: Guardians at Twins

And so it begins. Again.

The Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins begin a 13-game season series today with a three-game set in Minnesota, including the Twins' home opener today. As these teams are seen as the best teams in the AL Central, each game between the two clubs feels a little more significant than the average April contest. It takes only seven wins to win the season series and achieve a big tiebreaker.

The Guardians enter the series flying high at 5-2, after taking 3 of 4 from the Oakland A's and 2 of 3 from the Seattle Mariners. They have a team wRC+ of 130 (fourth in MLB) and a team ERA of 2.51 (third in MLB). Every hitter except Austin Hedges and Gabriel Arias has good numbers, led by David Fry with 223 wRC+, Andres Gimenez 197 wRC+, Steven Kwan 152 wRC+ and Josh Naylor 151 wRC+. Of pitchers set to pitch in this series, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tyler Beede and Emmanuel Clase all have FIP's under 2.00.

The Twins are 3-2, having won a series 2-1 vs. the Royals and split a two-game series vs. the Brewers. Twins batters are at 89 wRC+ and their pitchers are at 3.77 FIP. Led by Brock Stewart -0.02 FIP, Steven Okert 1.31 FIP, Joe Ryan 2.00 FIP, Jay Jackson 2.31 FIPand Pablo Lopez 3.17 FIP, the Twins hurlers look formidable. Aside from Alex Kirilloff at 220 wRC+, Carlos Correa 164 wRC+, Byron Buxton 154 wRC+, and old friend Carlos Santana at 92 wRC+, the rest of the Twins hitters have yet to get going.

Pitching Matchups:

Thursday, April 4th, 4:10PM EST: Tanner Bibee (projected 4.01 FIP) vs. Pablo Lopez (projected 3.51 FIP)

Analysis: Tanner Bibee had no idea where his fastball was going in his first start of the season vs. Oakland. He’ll need to find that fastball command to have a shot to keep the Guardians in what should be a tough matchup vs. one of the better pitchers in the American League in Pablo Lopez.

Saturday, April 6th, 2:10PM EST: Carlos Carrasco (projected 4.80) vs. Joe Ryan (projected 3.81 FIP)

Analysis: With Xzavion Curry striking out seven in three innings for Columbus and Gavin Williams soon beginning rehab appearances, Carrasco will certainly be fighting for his roster spot with every appearance. After a rough start vs. Seattle, Cookie hung in there and he’ll need to use a sharp-looking curveball effectively to keep Cleveland in the game vs. Ryan, another one of the American League’s top hurlers.

Sunday, April 7th, 2:10PM EST: Triston McKenzie (projected 3.81 FIP) vs. Bailey Ober (projected 4.09 FIP)

Analysis: On paper, this would seem to be Cleveland’s best chance to win a series, but both McKenzie and Ober had ROUGH first starts for their respective teams. McKenzie’s fastball settling around 90 mph raised some eyebrows, but some bad luck also played into his rough outing. This game will be a good chance for McKenzie to show his arm can bounce back well as he continues to try to demonstrate that the elbow injury he sustained last year will not be an ongoing concern.

Overall Notes: For whatever it’s worth, Will Brennan has a 182 wRC+, Steven Kwan 137 wRC+, Ramon Laureano 128 wRC+, Gabriel Arias 119 wRC+ and Jose Ramirez 114 wRC+ vs. Minnesota for their careers. In addition, Brennan (170 wRC+), Josh Naylor (147 wRC+) and Kwan (147 wRC+) have excellent career numbers at Target Field. Matt Wallner with a 168 wRC+. Carlos Correa 149 wRC+, and Ryan Jeffers 119 wRC+ have hit Cleveland well in their careers. I’ll be interested to see if David Fry and Ramon Laureano get a start in this series given the Minnesota barrage of right-handed starters, but I hope both are at least deployed strategically against Twins’ lefty relievers Steven Okert and Kyle Funderburk.

The Guardians will need lefty-hitters like Gimenez, Brennan, Josh and Bo Naylor and Kwan to provide a jolt to win this series, and hopefully they’ll see Jose Ramirez take a walk or two vs. non-position player pitchers and build on his excellent finale performance in the Mariners’ series. I would assume Estevan Florial will start in center field for at least one game, and it would be great to see him get his first home run as a Guardian against a division rival. I will be interested to see how Stephen Vogt continues to handle the bullpen, seeing if Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Tyler Beede have worked themselves into his circle of trust, and how Scott Barlow’s 91 mph fastball and reliance on his offspeed holds up against the Twins.