Series Preview: White Sox at Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox will meet for a three-game series beginning today at 5:10PM EST in Cleveland.

The Guardians enter play at 7-2, coming off an abbreviated sweep of the Minnesota Twins and a successful road trip in which they won all three series. The Guardians have a +32 run differential, a team 115 wRC+, and a 2.97 team FIP. The bullpen has been tremendous with a 2.78 FIP and the offense has been paced by David Fry with a 258 wRC+, Andres Gimenez with a 155 wRC+, Brayan Rocchio at 154 wRC+, Steven Kwan at 146 wRC+ and Josh Naylor at 122 wRC+.

The White Sox come into town sporting a 1-8 record with a -26 run differential, with a win against the Braves on April 2nd their only positive outcome so far this season. The White Sox have a 71 wRC+ and a 4.77 team FIP. On the bright side, they’ve been a positive team defensively so far, ninth in MLB in defensive value produced as measured by FanGraphs! Gavin Sheets with a 225 wRC+, Korey Lee 219 wRC+, Lenyn Sosa 138 wRC+ and Yoan Moncada at 134 wRC+ lead a group of hitters that seems particularly lacking with Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez on the injured list.

Pitching Matchup #1: Triston McKenzie vs. Tanner Banks and the White Sox Bullpen, today, 5:10PM EST

Analysis: The White Sox bullpen is not good but they do have three left-handed pitchers to throw at the Guardians in Banks, Tim Hill and Jared Shuster. We’ll see if that’s enough to keep the Guardians’ lefty-heavy team at bay, but we already see that manager Stephen Vogt has chosen to deploy LEFTY MASHER PROTOCOL putting David Fry and Ramon Laureano in the lineup. The big question will be if Triston McKenzie can improve from a disappointing 2024 debut and give the team some length as a starter, and keep his elbow from traveling down the dark path that now dominates Shane Bieber’s arm’s destiny.

Pitching Matchup #2: Logan Allen vs. Mike Soroka, Tuesday, April 8th, 6:10PM EST

Analysis: This should be a good chance for Allen to build on a strong start in Seattle, and hopefully he can keep lefty slugger Gavin Sheets neutralized in controlling what offensive threats the White Sox present. It will be nice not to face Luis Robert in this game as the centerfielder is out indefinitely with a hip flexor injury, but I wish him all the best. Baseball is better when LouBob gets to play. As for Soroka, a right-hander who throws 92 mph with his fastball and mixed in a good slider has been known to give Guardians’ teams problems in the past, but we’ll see if this team is different.

Pitching Matchup #3: Tanner Bibee vs. TBD, Wednesday, April 9th, 6:10PM EST

Analysis: I would assume Erik Fedde will start for the White Sox? Fedde pitched well against the Royals in his season debut, giving up one run in five innings. Fedde was the league MVP in 2023 in the KBO and you can read FanGraphs’ write-up on his potential as a number four starter and a groundball specialist here. Hopefully, Bibee can build on his excellent start against the Twins and set the Guardians up well for whoever will take the ball for them when they resume play on Friday (Carlos Carrasco or perhaps Xzavion Curry or Ben Lively?). I’ll also be interested to monitor how the Guardians use Tyler Beede in this series, if they see him firmly as a set-up man or if they begin to stretch him out for a potential role as a starter.

For their careers, Josh Naylor has a 154 wRC+ vs. the White Sox, Steven Kwan 152 wRC+, Ramon Laureano 139 wRC+ and Will Brennan 120 wRC+. Andrew Benintendi’s all-time 128 wRC+ leads the current White Sox against Cleveland.

I think I despise the White Sox primarily because they are a team that isn’t afraid to tank but also doesn’t really spend when the tanking years are over. So, rather than Cleveland’s attempt to always avoid tanking and also not spend much, they tank AND refuse to spend. It seems inconsistent. Yet, the White Sox have won a World Series during my lifetime and the Guardians have not, so I resent that. I’d like to see a sweep of a White Sox team that is in the active process of tanking, but I’d be very content with a series win if the Guardians can give us the fourth of those in four chances so far in 2024.